Which AI can you trust for debris & conjunction context?
By Anthony Vincent Caracappa, Founder and Self-Directed Space Researcher, Viventine Space Systems · updated
Breakup events, debris and rocket-body populations, collision-risk thresholds and standards.
On their own, no AI earns "Trust it" here. With Orbit Sentinel tools: Claude Fable 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, Grok 4.7.
| AI | Closed-book | With Orbit Sentinel tools | n | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| right / wrong | range | declined | right / wrong | range | declined | ||
| Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic | 45 / 10 | 31–60 | 45 | 94 / 2 | 83–98 | 4 | 42×2 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 Anthropic | 40 / 7 | 27–56 | 52 | 93 / 2 | 81–98 | 5 | 42×3 |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 Anthropic | 45 / 17 | 31–60 | 38 | 93 / 4 | 81–98 | 3 | 42×3 |
| Claude Haiku 5.5 Anthropic | 14 / 14 | 7–28 | 71 | 87 / 1 | 74–94 | 12 | 42×3 |
| Grok 4.7 xAI | 12 / 5 | 5–25 | 83 | 85 / 4 | 71–92 | 12 | 42×2 |
| Gemma 4 12B Google | 10 / 34 | 4–23 | 56 | 52 / 18 | 37–66 | 30 | 42×3 |
| gpt-oss 20B OpenAI | 12 / 64 | 5–25 | 24 | 44 / 19 | 31–59 | 37 | 42×3 |
| DeepSeek-R1 14B DeepSeek | 12 / 50 | 5–25 | 38 | — | 42×1 | ||
% right / % wrong per cell; color is the verdict (green trust it, amber verify, red don't use). Range is the 95% interval for % right, counting each question once; n is questions × runs for the tools track.
Sample questions
- How many debris objects from the 2007 Chinese anti-satellite test on Fengyun-1C have been cataloged in total (on orbit and reentered), as of October 2026?
- Of all cataloged debris from the 2007 Fengyun-1C anti-satellite test, what percentage is still on orbit (not reentered) as of October 2026?
- How many cataloged objects (including debris) resulted from Cosmos 2251, the satellite destroyed in the 2009 Iridium collision, as of October 2026?
- How many cataloged objects (including debris) are associated with Iridium 33, destroyed in the 2009 collision, as of October 2026?
- How many debris objects were cataloged from Russia's November 2021 anti-satellite test that destroyed Cosmos 1408, as of October 2026?
- What percentage of the cataloged debris from the 2021 Cosmos 1408 anti-satellite test has already reentered, as of October 2026?